Has Mbappe made Real Madrid more predictable? What the stats tell us…


What do you get when a megastar like Kylian Mbappe joins Real Madrid? Goals and trophies? Most likely. Media attention? Guilty. Pressure and expectation? Absolutely.

Mbappe has eight goals and two assists in 14 appearances for Real.

That’s a solid start for a player adapting to a new country – but this is a club that refused to attend the Ballon d’Or ceremony when it became obvious one of their players wasn’t going to win.

They see themselves as football’s apex predator, and they have the trophies to back it up. They want more than solid.

So after Real’s catastrophic 4-0 home defeat to Barcelona, we thought we’d look at how Mbappe has been doing.

Barcelona were left dancing at the Bernabeu
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Barcelona were left dancing at the Bernabeu

Problem one: Mbappe isn’t taking chances

Mbappe has taken the most shots of any player in Europe’s major leagues this season, but his finishing has been decidedly mediocre. Take away the three penalties he’s scored in La Liga and it gets even worse.

Real Madrid's Kylian Mbappe

Kylian Mbappe – LaLiga this season – Excluding penalties

Goals per 90 0.32 90th
Shot conversion 6.8% 113th
xG performance -2.4 172nd

(Ranks for players in top 5 European Leagues)

Without those penalties, Mbappe’s shot conversion rate lags way behind his peers – especially Lewandowski and Bradley Barcola, currently making a great fist of replacing Mbappe at PSG.

In Mbappe’s defence he is third-highest scorer in Spain, albeit eight goals behind Lewandowski. He’s unfortunate that Barcelona have a player enjoying such an incredible late-career run – but welcome to the Bernabeu. They don’t like being outdone by Barca.

La Liga – Top scorers this season

Robert Lewandowski Barcelona 14
Ayoze Perez Villarreal 7
Kylian Mbappe Real Madrid 6
Raphinha Barcelona 6

Problem two: Keeping onside

Real Madrid's Kylian Mbappe missed two one-on-ones and had three goals disallowed for offside in his Clasico debut
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Mbappe had two goals disallowed as he endured a disappointing El Clasico debut

How do you deal with Mbappe’s pace? One way is to drop deep and give him nothing to run into. The other way – the riskier way – is to push up and let the assistant referee help. That’s what Barcelona did.

Mbappe was caught offside eight times in El Clasico – the most times a player has been flagged in a major European league game since Chievo’s Sergio Pellissier in December 2013.

Reflecting on Mbappe’s performance against Barcelona, Madrid boss Carlo Ancelotti said: “It was known that they use the high line and we almost didn’t take advantage of it. He had chances and sometimes he was offside.

“But we had three or four opportunities where they needed more success. I don’t regret our approach. We did have opportunities. It’s a tough moment, as always when you lose. And even more so when you do it after so many games unbeaten.”

Part of that is down to Barcelona’s remarkable offside trap – 77 offsides in La Liga this season, 32 times more than any other team in Europe. But even if you removed El Clasico from the record (as Real would no doubt like to), Mbappe would still be La Liga’s second most-flagged player.

Only two other players have been offside as often in the whole of this season as Mbappe was on Saturday.

Mbappe

This won’t be Mbappe’s biggest issue – few teams will be as brave as Barcelona – but there are early signs that it will have an impact. Last season, Real scored nearly a quarter of their league goals from counter attacks and through balls – situations where you’d expect Mbappe to thrive – but so far this term they’ve scored only one of each.

Real Madrid – La Liga in last two seasons

% of goals from… 2023-24 2024-25
Counter attacks 9.2% 4.8%
Through balls 13.8% 4.8%
Counters & though balls combined 23% 9.6%

It’s likely that teams are defending much deeper against Real now they’ve got Mbappe. But if that’s the case, it’s an area where player and team will need to adapt.

Problem three: Real’s other superstars

Real Madrid's Jude Bellingham fights for the ball against Real Madrid's Jude Bellingham during a Spanish La Liga soccer match between Real Madrid and Barcelona at the Santiago Bernabeu stadium in Madrid, Spain, Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Bernat Armangue)
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Jude Bellingham is yet to score for Madrid this season

This isn’t the first time Mbappe has had to learn to play with other superstars – remember the Messi and Neymar days at PSG? The difference is that back then, Mbappe was the young up-and-comer.

Now he’s an established global icon, a World Cup winner, one of the few players on Earth who can justifiably walk into Real Madrid’s dressing room and expect that his new team-mates should adapt to him.

So far, that’s happening. Vinicius Junior was Real’s top scorer last season with 24 goals in 39 appearances, but in the Mbappe era he’s playing as more of a creator. Goals, shots, and touches in the opposition box are down (albeit he has five league goals, only one fewer than Mbappe); assists and chance creation are up.

Vinicius Jr

Jude Bellingham’s role has changed too. Last season he scored 19 league goals; this time around he’s yet to score in the league. Not so surprising when you consider he’s far less active in the final third this season.

Jude Bellingham % of touches by pitch area

La Liga in last 2 seasons 2023-24 2024-25
Defensive third 11% 16%
Middle third 52% 55%
Attacking third 39% 29%

Last season, Vinicius Junior, Bellingham, and Rodrygo took a combined 9.4 shots per 90 in La Liga. This season that’s down to 6.2. Mbappe has made Real more predictable.

Problem four: Maybe we’re expecting too much?

FILE - Real Madrid's Kylian Mbappe celebrates after scoring a goal which was disallowed during a Spanish La Liga soccer match between Real Madrid and Barcelona at the Santiago Bernabeu stadium in Madrid, Spain, Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Manu Fernandez, File)
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Mbappe has eight goals in 14 appearances for Real

As we mentioned at the top, Mbappe hasn’t made a terrible start.

He has six goals in 10 league appearances – Ronaldo scored seven in his first 10 league appearances for Real.

Saturday wasn’t the first time in recent years that El Clasico has thrown up a heavy home defeat for either team. And you can hardly say that a man who scored two penalties in a World Cup final – three if you include the shoot-out – can’t deal with pressure.

But that’s life at Real Madrid.



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