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Our football betting expert Jones Knows is back to provide his Premier League insight and thinks Man Utd are a very tempting price to beat Liverpool at Anfield.
Tottenham vs Newcastle, Saturday 12.30pm
Tottenham are performing way below their peak without some of their key men at the back and the market is expecting a Newcastle win such has been their imperious form, winning five on the bounce. I’m wary of jumping aboard at 5/4 with Sky Bet, though, as breaking up the Fabian Schar-Dan Burn partnership due to Schar’s suspension could disrupt them, especially against such a dangerous Spurs attack that have averaged 2.47 goals per game at home this season.
In 2024 on the seven occasions when Newcastle played without one of Burn or Schar their win percentage (52 per cent to 28 per cent), goals conceded (1.5 to 1.9) and shots faced (13.5 to 16.9) all worsened from a per 90 perspective.
There’s no way I’m trusting Spurs either though.
Tottenham Hotspur’s Dejan Kulusevski is Evens with Sky Bet for a goal or assist
But I do trust Dejan Kulusevski, arguably with my life. He has got nine goal involvements in his last nine starts at home and is Ange Postecoglou’s go-to-guy. His shoulders must hurt carrying this team.
He’s evens to grab another goal or assist.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Dejan Kulusevski to score or assist (Evens with Sky Bet)
Aston Villa vs Leicester, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Leicester are doomed – but are going down swinging based on the way Ruud van Nistelrooy has gone about his business. They looked a threat in the 2-0 defeat to Manchester City, creating 1.64 worth of expected goals playing in a shape that suited their two most creative players in Facundo Buonanotte and Stephy Mavididi.
Meanwhile, Villa have kept just two clean sheets in their last 24 Premier League matches meaning Leicester look the value call to add to the scoring. Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score at 11/10 with Sky Bet is soaked with potential.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Over 2.5 goals & both teams to score (11/10 with Sky Bet)
Bournemouth vs Everton, Saturday 3pm
Andoni Iraola has struggled to implement his unique style of play when facing Sean Dyche’s Everton, whose tactic of playing direct, therefore bypassing the aggressive Bournemouth press, has seen the Toffees put in some very eye-catching performances against the Cherries.
Dyche’s boys have averaged 1.85 expected goals per game in the three meetings between the two managers with Everton scoring five goals in those games. Despite losing 3-2 in August in that bonkers comeback game and 2-1 in March, Everton actually deserved to win the last two meetings when looking at the performance data and averaged a whopping 34 touches per 90 in the Bournemouth box.
Everton to avoid defeat or on the double chance at 11/10 with Sky Bet is one of best bets of the weekend.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Everton double chance (11/10 with Sky Bet)
Crystal Palace vs Chelsea, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Ipswich showed exactly why Chelsea won’t be winning the Premier League anytime soon – this is a team that can be got at if you aggressively press them in key areas of the pitch. Omari Hutchinson and Liam Delap delivered that plan to perfection.
No team in the Premier League has lost possession more against a team press than Chelsea (113) and which team leads the way for pressures resulting in a turnover? Crystal Palace (578).
Despite their lowly league position, Oliver Glasner has got his team well-drilled, losing only to Arsenal in their last eight games – and they’re creating quality chances in attack. Backing Palace to score should prove to be a profitable angle here and I’ve come down on Jean Phillipe Mateta to bag anytime at 5/2 with Sky Bet.
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Highlights from the Premier League clash between Ipswich and Chelsea.
Delap’s physicality terrorised Chelsea and Mateta is cut from the same cloth.
The Frenchman has scored 14 goals in his last 17 appearances at Selhurst Park.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Manchester City vs West Ham, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
The result may suggest otherwise but Manchester City’s performance against Leicester was more of the same.
After hitting the post, seeing a clear penalty denied due to the offside flag and a shot cleared off the line, the Foxes deserved more as City’s out-of-possession structure remains so easy to play through.
Although West Ham are flakier than a 99 and could collapse, they possess the attackers in transition to pose a huge threat. Mohamed Kudus should revel in the space afforded to him and the 4/1 with Sky Bet on his goalscorer price looks big. He scored in this fixture last season and has looked bright since returning from his suspension.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Southampton vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm
This is an appealing spot to back Southampton at Evens with Sky Bet on the draw no bet. Brentford have lost 17 of their last 23 Premier League away games and remain a very one-dimensional team in terms of their approach. Out of possession they really struggle to create sustained pressure which makes it easy for opposition teams to enjoy lots of territory.
Plus, this is such a tight turnaround for Thomas Frank’s injury-hit squad having played Arsenal on New Year’s Day. If Saints can’t get a result here then things really do look grim.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Brighton vs Arsenal, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
The Arsenal defence is returning to beast-like levels.
The bedrock of their nine-game unbeaten run is an ability to restrict opponents to limited chances in a way more typical of last season. Six of the last eight teams to face Arsenal have failed to register an expected goals tally of over 0.4 and four clean sheets have been kept by the Gunners.
Brighton’s current run of seven without a win coincides with the absence of Danny Welbeck. They miss his presence and experience as Joao Pedro is more effective playing off a central striker like Welbeck. While he remains absent, Brighton may remain in the same lacklustre mood. Those putting faith in Arsenal at 3/4 with Sky Bet should land themselves a winner with the away win to nil price at 9/4 also a runner.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
Fulham vs Ipswich, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Fulham are one of two teams to have avoid defeat against both Liverpool and Arsenal this season but are also one two teams to have failed to beat both Southampton and Wolves. It perfectly encapsulates the condensed nature of the Premier League table, barring Liverpool’s impeccable consistency.
Ipswich have also failed to beat Leicester and Southampton this season but bagged wins against Chelsea and Tottenham, so all in all, this is one of the trickiest games on the weekend slate. I wouldn’t be surprised with any result.
Omari Hutchinson to make two or more tackles at 5/6 is a more predictable outcome. He leads the press for Ipswich and has made at least two tackles in five of Ipswich’s eight away games in all competitions this season.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Liverpool vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Liverpool are likely to overwhelm Manchester United at some point in the match but every team has it’s price.
And at 8/1 with Sky Bet, with Bruno Fernandes and Manuel Ugarte back to bolster up the middle of the pitch, United are just too big to pass up, especially in a season where we’ve become accustomed to expecting the unexpected.
Yes, United have taken just seven points from eight Premier League games under Ruben Amorim – since he was appointed only Leicester (4) and Southampton (2) have taken less.
But you only need to go back a couple of games to see encouraging underlying metrics – they did win the expected goals battle for five games in a row, including winning the actual game at Manchester City. This away trip is obviously a huge step-up on that but this United squad is packed full of big-game players that have won multiple trophies in their time. At the prices, they are worth a nibble to deliver.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Wolves vs Nottingham Forest, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Wolves gave us a little snippet of how they’d fare without Matheus Cunha in the second half against Tottenham. Yes, they managed to grind out a 2-2 draw but it was everything you’d expect without one of the league’s most creative players – rather limp.
Now they must try and break through this Nottingham Forest defensive wall. It’s going to be a big ask. Forest haven’t conceded a goal in 297 minutes of Premier League action – only Arsenal and Liverpool (both 17) have conceded fewer than Forest’s 19 goals.
Despite the upturn in results under Vitor Pereira, Wolves have shown over a long period they are one of the lesser lights in the league and Forest have taken 28 of a possible 30 points against teams currently in bottom half. The away win to nil – a winner we found last week – has tempted me in again at 3/1 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Nottingham Forest to win to nil (3/1 with Sky Bet)
Jones Knows’ best bets…
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