Our betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight and best bets across the Premier League weekend and explains why the underdog tag suits Man Utd against Arsenal.
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City, Saturday 12.30pm
Jeremy Doku isn’t a player to you’d want running through on goal if your life depended on him scoring but he is without question a supremely dangerous attacker when his dancing feet are two-stepping to the right rhythm.
He sent Trent Alexander-Arnold for a starter, main and pudding during the recent clash with Liverpool, although his final ball was routinely dealt with by Alexander-Arnold’s team-mates.
Spurs couldn’t cope with him either in City’s 1-0 win and when the Belgian’s in this mood, he’s a player in the shots markets. In his last four starts for City, he’s landed for punters combining his two or more shots line and his shot on target price, which is accessible through the BuildABet function with Sky Bet.
Jeremy Doku is part of Jones Knows’ best bets this weekend
It’s a very juicy 13/8 with Sky Bet this weekend, a bet with great potential considering it landed in the corresponding fixture between the two and Nottingham Forest’s willingness to drop very deep out of possession which leads to opposition racking up the shots. Forest are conceding 13.6 shots per game this season – the sixth most of any team.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Jeremy Doku to have +2 shots & +1 shot on target (13/8 with Sky Bet)
The draw looks a big price here between two very evenly-matched teams when assessing all the evidence. Both are very secure at the back, especially Fulham away from home. They’ve only conceded two or more goals away at Liverpool and Man City and in a freak result against West Ham where the Hammers scored with three of their four shots.
And Fulham’s 1.11 expected goals against per 90 ratio on the road is the third best in the Premier League, only bettered by Liverpool and Arsenal.
Although Brighton are in rampaging form, winning five in a row since that outlier 7-0 defeat at Nottingham Forest, I wouldn’t want to be taking odds-on quotes for a home win as Fulham are very reliable at getting at least a goal having scored in their last 16 away games in all competitions.
Brighton have drawn 10 games this season, Fulham nine, so the 5/2 with Sky Bet for the draw and the 6/1 for the 1-1 correct score look to have chances.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
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Highlights from the Premier League match between Brighton and Bournemouth
Crystal Palace vs Ipswich, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Liam Delap is a wrecking ball. He has been one of the shining lights from a very grim season for Ipswich, who are still somehow in with a puncher’s chance of survival, especially with a potentially-extended Matheus Cunha ban impending for Wolves.
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Former Premier League referee Dermot Gallagher shares his verdict on Liam Roberts’ red card challenge on Jean-Philippe Mateta and whether the Millwall goalkeeper will receive an extended ban from the FA
That said, Kieran McKenna’s side aren’t showing many signs of being able to put a run together and this is a very difficult task for them yet again.
But it’s Delap that has caught my eye from a fouls perspective. He’s committed 2.57 fouls per game this season as he engages battle with opposition centre-backs. That makes the fouls drawn option with the player lining up against him very interesting whenever he plays and it’s a bet here with Maxence Lacroix, who is 7/2 with Sky Bet to be fouled twice.
It’s a bet that landed in the reverse fixture at Portman Road.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Maxence Lacroix to be fouled at least twice (7/2 with Sky Bet)
Liverpool vs Southampton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Even in the immediate aftermath of Liverpool’s emotional night in Paris, Arne Slot couldn’t really enjoy the smash-and-grab win. He had Southampton on his mind, saying how important the Anfield crowd will be on Saturday as his team tries to negotiate their way through their relentless workload on all fronts.
Of course, this is a perfect fixture as Saints are the worst team perhaps in Premier League history but the markets have got a little carried away with the Reds expecting to blow them away. They simply don’t need to waste the energy.
It’s not the Slot way. It will be result at all costs with trying to manage the fatigue factor.
The Reds have been given a two-and-a-half goal start by the handicaps and the goal line is set at four.
I’d want to back against both of those based on the factors surrounding this match. And Liverpool aren’t firing to their usual levels in forward areas anyway, they haven’t scored more than two in a match across their last seven with an overall goals per game average of 1.57 and an expected goals average of just 1.22 per game. That’s a sign of fatigue.
If you back Southampton with a +3 goal headstart and under 4.5 total match goals you get lots of likely correct scores in your favour at Evens with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Brentford vs Aston Villa, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Aston Villa have won just one of their last seven Premier League games, failing to beat Wolves, Ipswich and Crystal Palace in that run.
Only the bottom four have taken fewer points in that timeframe.
Villa also have such a poor record in their next game following a Champions League midweek game having not won in their last seven such matches. This looks a great opportunity for Brentford, who will have the vitally important Christian Norgaard back in the engine room after he missed the draw with Everton.
The goals should flow, too. Villa have kept only three clean sheets in their 28 Premier League games this season while more goals have been scored at the Gtech Community Stadium than any other Premier League ground this season (56).
It make sense to combine a Brentford win with over 2.5 goals at 2/1 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-2
Wolves vs Everton, Saturday 8pm
The Matheus Cunha show is becoming a little tiresome now. Throwing his hands in the air when he doesn’t get the ball, trying to score direct from corners and headbutting people that get in his face.
When Wolves need him most, he puts himself first. Yes, the goals and the world-class moments of brilliance show just what a special player he is but he’s showcasing why he’s playing for Wolves and not one of the elite clubs.
Matheus Cunha headbutts Milos Kerkez
That combustible side of his personality is going to hold him back in his career.
His suspension following that red card at Bournemouth leaves Wolves very short on attacking outlets and it’s hard to see how they can find a way through against an Everton defence that is led magnificently by Jarrad Branthwaite. They’ve already kept nine clean sheets this season – and another could be on the way here with Everton winning to nil worth some respect at 7/2 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Chelsea vs Leicester, Sunday 2pm
After three straight defeats in the Premier League, Chelsea playing back-to-back home games against Southampton and Leicester couldn’t have come at a better time for Enzo Maresca.
The Foxes, Maresca’s former club of course, have given up hope based on recent performances and defend their box with such a lack of conviction that Chelsea won’t have to overcomplicate things to create big chances. Just putting the ball into the box will be enough.
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A player that likes making those runs and attacking crosses is Enzo Fernandez, who is playing the best football of his Chelsea career at the moment. He’s scored two in his last two and half games. His 12/1 first goalscorer price with Sky Bet looks an avenue to explore.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Tottenham vs Bournemouth, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
The fact that Bournemouth are favourites to win away at Tottenham tells you the story.
It shows you how far Spurs have fallen this season under Ange Postecoglou and also what a barnstorming job Andoni Iraola is doing on the south coast.
Spurs have lost 14 Premier League games – only the bottom four have lost more – and their season hangs on their home clash with AZ Alkmaar on Thursday night. There are few excuses now for Postecoglou.
I’m not sure they’ll have the legs, midfield mobility and defensive nous to live with the Cherries, who ran all over them in the reverse fixture, winning 1-0 but posting some impressive underlying attacking figures of 3.71 worth of expected goals from their 21 shots.
Antoine Semenyo will revel in the space offered to him in transition and he operates in an area where Spurs are weak between Pedro Porro and whoever plays centre-back. The 9/4 for Semenyo to score rates as a great wager.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3
Manchester United vs Arsenal, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
No matter what Arsenal did in midweek against the circus act that was the PSV backline, this is still a team riddled with an unreliability in front of goal. Back-to-back blanks in the Premier League is still relevant despite the goal bonanza in midweek. They mustered only three shots on target across those two previous games, despite taking 33 shots.
United have shown some functionality in being able to play a backs-to-the-wall defensive game, beating Fulham away in grizzly fashion and restricting Ipswich to slim pickings in terms of chances when playing with a man less for 55 minutes.
They can make this a struggle for Arsenal and I’ve seen worse 4/1 shots with Sky Bet than United’s home win price here.
Remember, under Ruben Amorim, United have gone to Liverpool and drawn, beaten Manchester City and knocked Arsenal out of the FA Cup. When tasked with being the underdog, they have had their woof days.
And, based on United’s tendency to fail to score before the break, it’s happened in 17 of their last 20 matches, the 0-0 half-time correct score at 13/8 with Sky Bet is also a runner.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
West Ham vs Newcastle, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
The case to bet against Newcastle here is an easy one with them priced up as clear favourites to win the match.
What’s on the horizon hasn’t been factored into the betting enough. Eddie Howe can talk as much as he wants about complete focus being on this game but players will have one eye on next Sunday’s Wembley date against Liverpool.
Their overall performance is likely to be affected based on past fixtures involving teams in their final game before a cup final. If you take out Arsenal, Liverpool, Man Utd, Man City and Chelsea from the equation, of the 21 clubs to reach a major domestic final, 13 of them suffered a defeat in the game before the final.
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Highlights from the Premier League clash between West Ham and Leicester
Some of those defeats were shock results too like Watford losing 4-1 to West Ham at home before the 2019 FA Cup final and Crystal Palace losing 4-1 away at Southampton before the 2016 FA Cup final. No Anthony Gordon and Lewis Hall is another huge blow for the Toon who are so dangerous down that flank when that pair combine.
West Ham to win at 2/1 with Sky Bet looks a fine bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: West Ham to beat Newcastle (2/1 with Sky Bet)
Jones Knows’ best bets…
- 1pt on Jeremy Doku to have +2 shots & +1 shot on target (13/8 with Sky Bet)
- 1pt on Maxence Lacroix to be fouled at least twice (7/2 with Sky Bet)
- 1pt on West Ham to beat Newcastle (2/1 with Sky Bet)
- 1pt treble on Doku +2 shots, Lacriox to be fouled once & West Ham double chance (9/2 with Sky Bet)
