PL Predictions: When Ten Hag needs a win, he delivers

Our football betting expert Jones Knows is back to provide his insight on every Premier League game and tips up an 11/1 weekend treble.

Southampton vs Manchester United, Saturday 12.30pm

Russell Martin’s football in the Premier League is suffering some teething problems.

They’ve looked comfortable in possession and creative with build-up play that has resulted in large spells of Saints looking like a Premier League side, yet their risky strategy of playing out from the back is costing them badly.

They’re the 8/13 favourites with Sky Bet for the drop and one thing Manchester United are very good at under Erik ten Hag is swatting aside the lesser lights of the Premier League. When he needs a result, one usually drops for the Dutchman.

In 20 away games against teams that finished the season in the bottom half, Manchester United have won 14, drawn four and lost just twice. Meanwhile, their record against relegated teams on the road is six wins from six matches, conceding just two goals. United to win and under 3.5 goals comes out at 6/4 with Sky Bet – it should go close.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1

Brighton vs Ipswich, Saturday 3pm

Are Brighton the real deal? The markets are screaming for them after three games of the Fabian Hurzeler era.

They are just as likely to finish in the top four as Manchester United according to the outright odds (9/2 with Sky Bet) and have been backed into 13/8 for a top-six finish, having been much bigger at the start of the campaign.

No European football is certainly in their favour – as is the array of attacking options across their forward line, like Kaoru Mitoma, who looks overpriced to score at 2/1 with Sky Bet in a winnable game for Brighton.

The Japanese star looks back to his best of the 22/23 season when he averaged almost a goal every other game in the Premier League at the Amex. He can fire in a home win.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1

Crystal Palace vs Leicester, Saturday 3pm

I’ve yet to see any hard evidence to suggest that Leicester will have enough firepower to avoid relegation this season.

They’ve created just 1.33 worth of expected goals from open play in their three fixtures so far and looked woefully short of ideas against Aston Villa last weekend despite what looked a nervy 2-1 scoreline for Villa. It was far more comfortable than that.

Meanwhile, Oliver Glasner should be able to get Palace rolling in the right direction now the transfer window is shut. Palace have come out the other side in better shape than many predicted.

And I was very impressed by their second-half performance at Chelsea where the introduction of forgotten man Cheick Doucoure completely revitalised their midfield.

He and Adam Wharton could develop a very nice partnership in there – one that should lead them to a routine home win in this one where a Palace victory and under 3.5 goals at 13/8 with Sky Bet is worth a second look.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0

Fulham vs West Ham, Saturday 3pm

West Ham left-back Emerson Palmieri could have his hands full with a revitalised Adama Traore down the Fulham right flank. Opposition left-backs are always liable for cards and fouls when the price is right up against the powerful winger.

Traore has drawn 64 cards from the opposition in the Premier League, while he and Kenny Tete, who plays at right-back, have already drawn eight fouls between them in their three appearances this season.

Prices like the 6/4 with Sky Bet for Emerson to make two fouls along with the 9/2 for him to be carded are both live. If you combine both you can conjure up a 7/1 shot through the BuildABet function with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Nottingham Forest’s defensive process under Nuno Espirito Santo deserves more respect than the markets are giving them here. In the 24 games since his appointment, only Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool have a better expected goals-against output than Forest (1.24 per 90) and they’ve only conceded two or more goals in four of their last 17 matches across all competitions.

I can trust them to keep this game tight.

Liverpool have played with greater control and less chaos under Arne Slot which is seeing their first-half attacking output suffer. They have fired just 3-5-4 first-half shots in games against Ipswich, Brentford and Manchester United and have overperformed their expected goals output before the break.

The total goals line is projected to be over three in this encounter, which looks high, but it’s the first half under 1.5 goals line at 8/11 with Sky Bet that looks the most secure way to play the anti-goals angle.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Under 1.5 first-half goals (8/11 with Sky Bet – part of 11/1 weekend treble!)

Man City vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Going by how relentless and focused Manchester City have been at the start of the season, this should once again turn into a predictable betting heat where short prices like City to win and Erling Haaland to score are likely to cop.

We need to get creative to find an angle and the Brentford offside line at two or more offsides at 10/11 with Sky Bet stands a great chance. The Bees have been flagged offside 20 times in the last five meetings with City, with the ‘two or more’ line landing on each occasion. They do get the ball forward quickly and City’s high line does mean offside opportunities for the opposition are always on offer.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1

Aston Villa vs Everton, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Jarrad Branthwaite is becoming a better player every game he misses for Everton, who have been without him six times since the start of last season and have lost five of those, conceding an average of 2.5 goals per game. With the noise becoming as loud as ever around Goodison Park, this is a nightmare fixture for Sean Dyche.

Aston Villa won 12 of their 18 games against teams that finished 12th or lower last season and were unbeaten in all 10 Premier League home games against the bottom half, winning eight.

The fact Ollie Watkins was given some time to recharge over the international break doesn’t bode well for Everton either. The Villa striker has failed to score in his last seven appearances in all competitions, missing six big chances. That doesn’t worry me, though – he’s too lethal a finisher to let that run go on too much longer. Villa to win and Watkins to score at 7/4 with Sky Bet looks a winner in waiting.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Ollie Watkins to score in an Aston Villa win (7/4 with Sky Bet – part of weekend 11/1 treble)

Bournemouth vs Chelsea, Saturday 8pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

This is shaping up to be a lively watch. Chelsea looked red hot going forward at times in their 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace but equally went missing at key points of the match which restricted them from turning their forthright play into a victory.

Meanwhile, Bournemouth failed to win any of their 12 Premier League games vs last season’s top six – winning just two points from a possible 36 – and haven’t looked as watertight this season, conceding 25 shots on target in their four games across all competitions. Goals should be on the menu with anytime goalscorer prices like 15/8 with Sky Bet on Antoine Semenyo and 2/1 on Noni Madueke both likely to give punters a decent run.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2

Tottenham vs Arsenal, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Due to Arsenal’s selection issues in midfield, with no Martin Odegaard or Declan Rice, I can see Mikel Arteta treating this game like a Champions League knockout game away from home in a partisan atmosphere. Getting out of there with a point will be seen as a good result.

It will be low-risk football with the aim of silencing the home crowd at every opportunity, and I’m confident in Arsenal being able to frustrate Spurs based on their spectacular road record. Arsenal have taken 28 points from a possible 30 away from home in 2024 and are yet to trail on the road this year. It’s a defence that has conceded just three goals in those 10 games.

Sunday 15th September 2:00pm


Kick off 2:00pm

The way to frustrate an Ange Postecoglou side is to defend in numbers and block the overloads out wide as Spurs aren’t very streetwise at trying to break down low-block defences. They are becoming a team that posts lots of shots but their expected goals return doesn’t quite match up – that points to an issue with creating high-quality chances.

I think Arsenal can send this game down a low-scoring avenue with the 11/8 with Sky Bet on under 2.5 goals representing some great value.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals (11/8 with Sky Bet – part of 7/1 weekend treble!)

Wolves vs Newcastle, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

The predicted intense midfield battle is where my betting instincts have taken me for this one.

Newcastle’s trio of Bruno Guimaraes, Joelinton and possibly Sandro Tonali are all in-your-face kind of midfielders that make a high volume of fouls. If you total up their fouls-committed averages from last season they are making 5.8 fouls per 90 between them. Even this season, Joelinton and Guimaraes have made 18 fouls combined in the Premier League.

I’m expecting similar averages for the trip to Molineux where I like the look of Wolves midfielder Mario Lemina’s prices to be fouled up against that fouling frenzy of a Newcastle midfield. He’s drawn 15 fouls in his last 14 starts for Wolves, including two in the 1-1 draw with Forest last weekend, so the 7/2 with Sky Bet for him to be fouled twice looks a runner.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Jones Knows’ best bets of the weekend…