The last 16 of this year’s Champions League has not even begun but with 12 games left in the Premier League, thoughts are already turning to qualifying for next year’s tournament.
The race for the top four – or most likely five, but we will come back to that later – is pretty tight, as only eight points separate Nottingham Forest in third and Aston Villa all the way down in ninth, with 36 points left to play for.
Liverpool and Arsenal look certain to reach next season’s Champions League and enjoy a 20-point and nine-point buffer over fifth spot already. Opta give Liverpool a 100 per cent chance of finishing in the top four, with Arsenal only a tad less likely with a 99.9 per cent chance.
Behind them there are more than half a dozen teams, including Manchester City and Chelsea – but also surprise packages Forest and Bournemouth – in with a shot of making it over the line.
With the chasing pack so tightly bunched, and only eight points separating as many teams from third to 10th, things can change very quickly. And that could happen this midweek, with six teams in the mix facing each other before the match day is over.
Third host second as Nottingham Forest welcome Arsenal to the City Ground on Wednesday night, with both sides smarting from painful defeats over the weekend – and Forest looking to avoid losing three straight games for the first time all season.
Runaway leaders Liverpool host Newcastle, fresh from their assured win at the Etihad, with Eddie Howe’s side only trailing Man City in fourth on goal difference following their own win over Forest.
The game will also act as a dress rehearsal for next month’s Carabao Cup final, when the Magpies look to lift silverware for the first time in 70 years live on Sky Sports on March 16.
Bournemouth missed the chance to leapfrog City into fourth themselves with a shock 1-0 home defeat by Wolves at the weekend, and now travel to Brighton – who sit only three points off them following back-to-back wins – looking to avoid losing further ground.
Chelsea’s poor form has dropped them from title contenders to seventh in the table after three defeats from four, but basement side Southampton visit Stamford Bridge after conceding another four goals to Brighton at the weekend.
Aston Villa’s comeback win over Chelsea has lifted them two points off fourth spot, even though they remain eighth in the table, and a trip to in-form Crystal Palace is their next challenge as they look to jump further up the table.
Will the Premier League have five Champions League spots next season?
It is not certain but is very likely that England will have at least five spots in next season’s Champions League for the first time since 2017/18, owing to the Premier League’s performance in Europe.
Six of the seven English teams involved in European competition this season have made it through to the last 16 of their respective tournaments, with only Man City absent following their Champions League play-off defeat to Real Madrid.
That puts England comfortably at the top of the charts for its European coefficient this season, which is an accumulation of wins and draws picked up by each country’s sides and further points awarded for how far they make it in each continental competition.
The top-two ranked countries at the end of the season will receive an extra Champions League place next season, with Italy and Spain currently battling it out for second spot.
A word of caution, though. England was comfortably top of the UEFA coefficient list for much of last season before a raft of eliminations from European competition saw their hopes of an extra qualifying disappear, confining fifth-placed Tottenham to this season’s Europa League instead of the Champions League.
Should the Premier League’s representatives on the continent find themselves on the wrong end of some more tricky draws, the same thing could happen this time around.
There is another way England could end up with five – or perhaps even six spots. That outcome would occur if either of Tottenham or Manchester United win this season’s Europa League while also finishing outside of the qualifying spots in the Premier League.
Who is most likely to reach the top four – or five?
There may still be 12 matches to go but Opta has given both Liverpool and Arsenal an almost certain chance of reaching next season’s Champions League owing to their buffer over the teams below them and the difficulty of their remaining fixtures relative to the other sides in the race.
With that in mind, Man City are third-favourites to qualify for next season’s tournament despite sitting behind Forest in the table – though Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have the next-best chance of rounding off the top four.
Newcastle will be the most keen on seeing a fifth English team in Europe next season as things stand, given it is set to give them a better-than-evens chance of returning to the Champions League after a year’s absence.
Bournemouth and Chelsea will likewise also be hoping for a fifth spot in the Champions League, with their qualifying prospects jumping by nearly 20 per cent for a top-five finish compared to if they need to reach the top four.
Aston Villa, Brentford, Brighton and Brentford are also in with a marginal chance of qualifying, Opta suggests – but with the Premier League top half so tight, all of that could easily change over the next three months.
Here is the average position of each Premier League side’s next five opponents, taking them right into the final throes of the season…
Neville: Villa to make top four, but can Forest make top five?
Sky Sports’ Gary Neville on The Gary Neville Podcast:
“I said a few weeks ago, I fancied Aston Villa to get into the top four because of Unai Emery and they’re still in competitions. But with their options up front now, they’ve got five or six players there that two or three will play, and then they’ve got such options off the bench, they’ve left themselves in a good position. Defensively, they need to make sure they can keep some players fit, but I think Villa could finish the season strong.
“Nottingham Forest have been absolutely amazing, the story of the season, but I think they’ll find it hard to hang on.
“I hope they hang on in there, but it’s going be tough for them. Twelve games is a long way to go. We’ve written off the title here with 11 points, but I still feel like it could be a long 12 games for Nottingham Forest.
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Gary Neville discusses who he thinks will make the top four in the Premier League this season
“I hope that they do stay there, because it would be amazing for the Premier League. We need to see clubs that have been at the bottom one season getting up into the top six and into the top four. The league needs it.
“We’re worried that the three that come up seem like they go down quite a bit, and we don’t want that familiarity and that predictability in the league. We need it to be the most unpredictable league in the world.
“At the moment I’m saying Man City, Newcastle and Villa in the top five, but it could easily be Forest and Chelsea. It’s really so close.
“Bournemouth are part of that mix as well. They’ve been amazing, but I don’t think they’ll get into that top five. They’re worth mentioning in the same bracket as Nottingham Forest, as being the surprise of the season.”
Remaining games between the teams in the mix…
Teams included with a one-per-cent or greater chance of qualifying:
- February 25: Brightonvs Bournemouth
- February 26: Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal, Liverpool vs Newcastle
- March 8: Nottingham Forest vs Man City, Brighton vs Fulham
- March 15: Man City vs Brighton
- March 16: Arsenal vs Chelsea – live on Sky Sports
- April 1: Arsenal vs Fulham, Brighton vs Aston Villa
- April 5: Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest, Fulham vs Liverpool
- April 12: Bournemouth vs Fulham
- April 19: Aston Villa vs Newcastle, Fulham vs Chelsea
- April 26: Man City vs Aston Villa
- May 3: Aston Villa vs Fulham, Brighton vs Newcastle, Chelsea vs Liverpool
- May 10: Bournemouth vs Aston Villa, Liverpool vs Arsenal, Newcastle vs Chelsea
- May 18: Arsenal vs Newcastle, Brighton vs Liverpool, Man City vs Bournemouth
- May 25: Fulham vs Man City, Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea
